Simon Janssen
Simon Janssen· CTO at HappyNurse · US AI Exposure Map 2026
Production

Machinists and AI

Moderate exposureAI score 4/10 · Production
4out of 10
JPE Score
Median salary
$59K
OEWS May 2025
Forecast 2030
-5% to +5%
Employment
288K
BLS Employment Projections 2025
Employment growth 2021-2025 (OEWS)
-14%
Forecast trend 2025-2030
stable
Education
High school
Sector
Production

Exposure scores

JPE (Practical Exposure)4/10 — Moderate exposure
Felten AIOE (academic reference)5.2/10
Employment growth 2021-2025 (OEWS)-14%

AI exposure explained

What does an AI score of 4/10 mean?

Interpretation

Moderate exposure — Parts of this work can be assisted by AI. The role will evolve but not disappear.

For Machinists, AI exposure is moderate: some tasks will be assisted or automated, but the occupation as a whole is expected to evolve rather than disappear. Staying current with AI tools in the field is the key adaptation.


Forecast 2030

What changes for Machinists?

Expected employment change, 2025 to 2030
-5% to +5%
Midpoint 0% · Stable: invest in AI skills
BaseBLS projection, AI not named by BLS+1%
Base + AIJPE 4/10: 0%0%
Base + AI + roboticsphysical automation, already under way: −0.5%0%
Rows add up: the bottom row is the forecast.

The forecast starts from the national projection per occupation and adds AI and robotics as separate layers. The band of -5% to +5% matters more than the midpoint. Robotics: Computer-controlled machines and automatic loaders let one machinist run more machines; this is already part of the trend. (Expert estimate 5/10, effect to 2030 between 0% and −1%.)

BLS AI exposure category: Moderate (context next to the JPE score, not used in the forecast)

Sources: base BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 · jobs: BLS Employment Projections, 2025 (incl. self-employed) · growth 2021-2025: OEWS May 2021 to May 2025 · salary: OEWS May 2025. BLS already builds AI and automation effects into its projection for some occupations; where it does, no separate layer is added on top.

Read the methodology →


Sector context

Production and AI

Machinists belongs to the Production sector. This sector has an education level index of 1/4, indicating lower formal education requirements. Occupations in Production with high AI exposure tend to remain relatively stable as the work relies primarily on physical, interpersonal, or contextual skills.


AI tools

Which AI tools are already making an impact?

ChatGPTSight Machine

Career outlook

AI as an asset

This occupation is not directly threatened by AI. The smartest move is to learn the AI tools that strengthen your work: not because you have to, but because it makes you more productive and valuable.


Personal development

Personal development plan

Based on your sector (Production) and AI exposure level, here are three concrete steps to future-proof your career.

Deploy AI quality inspection systems

Machine vision catches defects 10x faster than manual checks

→ Sight Machine, Cognex
Implement predictive maintenance

Unplanned downtime drops 30-50% with AI monitoring

→ PTC ThingWorx, Augmentir
Optimize processes with AI analytics

Small efficiency gains compound across millions of units

→ Sight Machine, Tulip

Related occupations

Similar occupations on the map

Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators
AI 3/10·0% 2030
Production
First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers
AI 4/10·+1% 2030
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Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers
AI 3/10·+1% 2030
Production
Home Health and Personal Care Aides
AI 3/10·+9% 2030
Healthcare Support
Retail Salespersons
AI 5/10·-1% 2030
Sales

International

This occupation in other countries

🇩🇪Metallfacharbeiter/innen
AI 3/10Metal Workers

About this analysis

AI scores are LLM-estimated using the same methodology as the Dutch AI Exposure Map, making scores directly comparable across countries. The Felten AIOE score is shown as an academic reference. Employment from BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 (2025, including self-employed); growth 2021-2025 and salaries from BLS OEWS May 2021 and May 2025 (an estimate where OEWS has no figure). The 2030 forecast (JPE-prognose v3) starts from the BLS Employment Projections and adds separate AI and robotics layers only where BLS does not already include those effects. These are modelled scenarios, not predictions. A high AI score does not automatically mean job loss. All data CC BY 4.0.

Full methodology, sources and download →


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