Simon Janssen
Simon Janssen· CTO at HappyNurse · US AI Exposure Map 2026
IT & Computing

Software Developers and Programmers and AI

Very high exposureAI score 9/10 · IT & Computing
9out of 10
JPE Score
Median salary
$133K
Forecast 2030
-16% to -15%
Employment
1.7M
BLS growth '23–'33
+17%
Trend
strong decline
Sector
IT & Computing

Exposure scores

JPE (Practical Exposure)9/10 — Very high exposure
Felten AIOE (academic reference)9.3/10
BLS growth projection (2023–2033, 10yr)+17%

AI exposure explained

What does an AI score of 9/10 mean?

Interpretation

Very high exposure — Most tasks are susceptible to AI. This does not mean job loss — developers score 9/10 but grew +17%.

High AI exposure combined with a declining trend creates meaningful disruption risk for Software Developers and Programmers. Workers in this field should consider developing AI-adjacent skills or exploring related roles with lower exposure.


Forecast 2030

What changes for Software Developers and Programmers?

Modeled employment change by 2030
-16% to -15%
Disruption risk: High

This model combines BLS Employment Projections (2023–2033 horizon, interpolated to 2030) with an AI disruption factor calibrated for the US labor market (at-will employment, higher labor mobility, stronger AI adoption). A range of -16% to -15% means employment for Software Developers and Programmers is modeled to decline by 2030. This is a scenario, not a prediction.


Sector context

IT & Computing and AI

Software Developers and Programmers belongs to the IT & Computing sector. This sector has an education level index of 4/4, indicating higher formal education requirements. Occupations in IT & Computing with high AI exposure tend to see significant task restructuring as AI tools handle information-intensive work.


AI tools

Which AI tools are already making an impact?

GitHub CopilotChatGPTClaudeCursor

Career outlook

High exposure — Diversify your skill set now

Core tasks are increasingly automatable. Focus on hybrid skills: combine your domain expertise with AI fluency. Workers who adapt early will lead, not follow.


Personal development

Personal development plan

Based on your sector (IT & Computing) and AI exposure level, here are three concrete steps to future-proof your career.

Master AI pair programming

Developers using AI tools are 2-3x more productive

GitHub Copilot, Cursor
Learn prompt engineering for code

Directing AI effectively is a core dev skill now

Anthropic docs, OpenAI cookbook
Build AI-integrated apps

Every application will have an AI layer within 3 years

LangChain, Vercel AI SDK

Related occupations

Similar occupations on the map

Computer User Support Specialists
AI 7/10·-12% 2030
IT & Computing
Computer Systems Analysts
AI 8/10·-10% 2030
IT & Computing
Data Scientists
AI 9/10·-8% 2030
IT & Computing
Customer Service Representatives
AI 8/10·-18% 2030
Office & Admin
Office Clerks, General
AI 8/10·-18% 2030
Office & Admin

About this analysis

AI scores are LLM-estimated using the same methodology as the Dutch AI Exposure Map, making scores directly comparable across countries. The Felten AIOE score is shown as an academic reference. Employment and salary data from BLS OEWS May 2024. A high AI score does not automatically mean job loss — Software Developers score 9/10 but BLS projects +17% growth (2023–2033). The 2030 forecast interpolates BLS 10-year projections to a 2030 horizon and adjusts with AI disruption pressure. These are modeled scenarios, not predictions. All data CC BY 4.0.

Full methodology, sources and download →


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